 three, two, one, zero...
Hope, belief and optimism are the issues of this story.
Although the future may occasionally look somber or even very dark indeed - do we have a choice? We are bound to hope and to believe. It is the force of life itself that pushes us - to fight for life and survival. Hope, belief and optimism help us to carry on, even if everything seems lost. That's good. It keeps us alive and going.
Can one, however, hope for the impossible? Some people believe miracles happen. But in everyday life one has to get the milk from the supermarket when the fridge is empty. Prayers and religious beliefs won't help. They won't get the milk for you. Optimism doesn't work neither, not for normal people like you and me.
That was clear-cut. No debate necessary. But the grey areas are more difficult, where the outcome is uncertain and you are running a risk. How high is the risk? What is the worst that can happen?
Imagine driving a car. The risk is low that you can't replenish at the next petrol station. If your petrol gauge isn't working you may find yourself stopped somewhere in-between. Someone will give you a lift and you only lose some time.
Imagine you look at the wrong side whilst starting to cross the road in central London. The risk is very high that you will be run over by one of those famous London buses. You might be killed instantaneously. End of your story.
For uncertainties and risks we apply the precautionary principle. We make sure that the car is in good working order and we look carefully in both directions before crossing the road in London. We take precautions. We fill up the fridge before guests arrive. We know the risks and we behave accordingly.
So far our private lives. Politics uses different principles. Politicians frequently confound belief and reality. They call certainties "risks", unsolvable problems "challenges", and their future counts either the next 5 years or far-away "future generations".
Hitler and his surrounding believed they could ultimately win the war, achieve the endsieg. Mr Bush and his clique believed taking Baghdad was a cake-walk and it would secure much-needed additional oil. China's dictatorship believes securing mineral resources and arable lands in Africa will sustain their economic expansion endlessly.
The world's opinion leaders believe that we can carry on business as usual, in spite of environmental limits. Their mantras are hope, belief and optimism. But their hope is idle. Their belief is illusionary. Their optimism does not change realities.
Their flat-earth policies are leading the world to its last days. As long as they are in power we are lost, full stop, very soon, sonner one would think.
You think this is pessimism? Well. The ancient city Troj could have been spared if people had listened to Cassandra. The Nuclear holocaust has been prevented because many people warned against pushing the button. None of the power elites listens to the warnings that the earth is finite and overloaded. That population growth, economic growth, resource depletion and toxification are heralding catastrophe before the middle of this century
The following four short chapters are not a warning. They describe our unavoidable future. The last days of modern mankind are on the horizon. It's a simple count-down: 3, 2, 1, zero...
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