Consumption Growth Calculator
Explanation

First the present global consumption conpw is calculated by :

conpw = pd * 1 + pi * (I/D)

where :

  • pd is the present population in the developing countries in billions. Set to 4.8.
  • pi is the same for the industrial countries. Set to 1.2
  • 1 is set as the value of the present consumption per capita in the developing countries
  • (I/D) is the present per capita consumption in the industrial countries divided by that of the developing countries (which arbitrarely is set as the value 1 (since only the relation (I/D) is required for the calculations).

    Then the future global consumption (global consumption in 50 years) confw is calculated by :

    confw = pd*(1+(gpd/100))*1*(1+(agd/100))^50 +
                  pi*(1+(gpi/100))*(I/D)*(1+(agi/100))^50

    where:

  • gpd is the growth in population over the next 50 years in the developing countries
  • gpi is the same for the industrial countries
  • agd is the annual growth rate of the consumption per capita in the developing countries
  • agi is the same for the industrial countries

    The global Consumption Growth Factor (consumption growth over 50 years) is then :

    grfacw = ( confw / conpw )

    The resource productivity factor rpf represents the accumulated effect of annual increases in resource productivity over 50 years and is calculated from

    rpf = (1-(i/100))^50

    where i is the increase in resource productivity in percent p.a.

    The Impact Growth Factor ipf is then calculated by

    ipf = rpf * grfacw

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