We were here
The Hague 25 November 2000
and 2001, 2002, 2003, ... ?
The first two graphs (you are here 1999 and 2000) show past and future development over a time of 200 years. That is 8 generations of each 25 years. The future development is based on a "business as usual" scenario. "Business as usual" means: no fundamental reversals in the existing growth patterns: growth of population, pollution, production and depletion.
The last graph consists of two graphics. The lower right hand side graph shows the sizes of humanoid and human populations. Humans with our capacities - homo sapiens sapiens - exist since at least 100000 years (4000 generations of 25 years). That is the point in the graph "Middle Paleolithic" where the population starts to increase.
The next two moments in time where human numbers growth rates change occur with the development of agriculture and - dramatically - since the beginning of the industrial age in 1776 (James Watt's steam engine).
This development is pictured in the upper left hand side graph, which is an enlargement of the little spec in time represented by the tiny blue rectangle in the bottom graph.
The graphs are based on the resource scenario calculations in "Beyond the Limits" by Meadows, Meadows and Randers (1992) and "World Oil Resources" by Duncan and Younquist (1998).
Graphics and images thanks to Jay Hanson at www.dieoff.com
1997 - 2007 ecology
discovery foundation new zealand (charitable trust)
P.O. Box 24184 Wellington New Zealand - On-line feedback